Boxing Day Footfall Rises, But Analyst Sees Risks For ABF

According to data from MRI Software, London contributed to the rise in the number of shoppers visiting UK high streets on Boxing Day, with the overall number also increasing year-on-year, boosting the prospects for listed retailers such as JD Sports (LON: JD.), Associated British Foods (LON: ABF), and Currys (LON: CURY).

The company's data revealed that compared to last year, footfall rose 10% in central London and 8.8% nationally. However, when considering data from retail parks and shopping centres, footfall rose by 4%.

The Boxing Day footfall has been impacted over the years by earlier online sales events such as Black Friday. In addition, with some companies, such as Marks & Spencer and Next, not opening stores until a day later, it has also put a slight dent in numbers.

When compared to 2019, MRI, which reportedly collected the data using thousands of counting points in 1,300 shopping locations in the UK, said Boxing Day footfall is 14.9% lower nationally, although it is up 1.6% in central London.

Although there has been a continued strain on consumers from high inflation and rising interest rates, consumers have remained somewhat resilient over the last year or so. Earlier this year, JD Sports reported an 8% rise in revenue for the 26 weeks ended July 29, 2023.

Despite the positives, analysts at JPMorgan were cautious in a recent note. Ahead of Christmas, investment bank stated they expect consumer resilience in the UK to remain during the holiday period, but “there is limited upside pressure to forecasts.”

Furthermore, going into the January trading updates, they “see risk at Primark,” as its comps are “toughest.” In addition, the bank cited its German and French exposure. As a result, the firm placed ABF on its Negative Catalyst Watch list ahead of its trading update on January 23.