Airbus Ups 20-Year Forecast for Jetliner Demand

In a significant revision to its market forecast, Airbus (AIR.PA) has increased its 20-year demand projection for new jetliners. The European aerospace conglomerate now expects that the industry will require 48,230 new airplanes by 2040, representing a substantial opportunity for aircraft manufacturers worldwide.

The company's forecast, which is an upward revision from previous estimates, also predicts a total of 42,430 industry-wide deliveries over the next two decades, with 41,490 of these being passenger jets. The revised numbers underscore the trajectory of growth the aviation industry is on, following a period of uncertainty during the global pandemic.

Airbus has segmented its forecast into two categories: single-aisle planes and wide-body jets. In an optimistic assessment of the travel sector's recovery and growth, particularly for long-haul flights, Airbus has raised its expectations for wide-body jet demand by 9%, totaling 8,920 units. This category includes larger aircraft commonly used for international travel and offers a sign that airlines are anticipating a sustained appetite for global connectivity.

In the single-aisle market segment, which includes popular aircraft models such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series, demand has been adjusted upward by 3%, with forecasts predicting the need for 33,510 new units. Single-aisle planes are a mainstay of domestic and short-haul international flights, and the increased forecast aligns with persistent demand trends for these versatile and more economically serviceable jets.

The revised outlook highlights strong growth potential in Asia and the Middle East, regions that have shown robust market expansion capabilities. Asia, in particular, is expected to drive significant portions of future demand, with China and India playing pivotal roles in the aviation market's growth. With India's aviation landscape rapidly evolving, the forecast also points to the Indian subcontinent hosting the top three fastest-growing traffic flows.

Additionally, Airbus builds an environmental argument into its forecast. The company suggests that the introduction of new jets will result in overall lower emissions. By replacing older, less fuel-efficient aircraft with newer models, and by complementing this transition with the development of greener fuels, there is an opportunity for the industry to align with broader sustainability objectives.

These projections from Airbus serve as a bellwether for the aviation industry's long-term outlook, hinting at the potential resurgence of air travel to pre-pandemic levels and beyond. They also signal to airlines and investors the strategic need for fleet modernisation and the push towards sustainability as critical components of future industry growth.