Can Vistry Share Price Climb as Completions Rise in FY24?

Vistry Group's (LON: VTY) shares have moved higher so far on Wednesday, gaining over 5%, following a promising trading update for the year ended 31 December 2024.

However, whether the stock can continue to climb remains to be seen after a challenging period. The stock has seen a 45% decline over the past three months, exacerbated by three profit warnings.

However, today's update has seemingly provided some positive news for investors.

Vistry posted a 7% increase in total completions, reaching approximately 17,200 units, and a 9% rise in adjusted revenue to £4.4 billion.

Despite the gains, the company's adjusted profit before tax is expected to decline to around £250 million, down from £419.1 million the previous year, aligning with its revised guidance issued in December.

Adjusted revenues are expected to be up approximately 9% to £4.4 billion.

The company attributed its performance to strong demand in the Partner Funded market, with Partner Funded units increasing by 18%.

“[The] Group continues to believe the Partnerships market remains very attractive and is committed to its asset-light, high returns Partnerships strategy,” said Vistry.

In contrast, open market units decreased by 15%, reflecting ongoing challenges in mortgage affordability and consumer confidence.

Vistry also highlighted successful partnerships, securing over 220 new agreements and enhancing its pipeline of land and development opportunities.

Looking ahead, Vistry remains committed to its asset-light, high-returns Partnerships strategy. However, the company expects continued challenges in the open market, stating: “The open market remains constrained with a recovery in consumer confidence key to open market sales growth. For FY25 we are assuming open market demand to be at a similar level to FY24.”

Even so, Vistry remains confident in its ability to make year-on-year progress in both profit and cash generation in 2025.

For FY25, based on current market expectations, the company expects low single-digit build cost inflation. 

“We will look to mitigate this where possible through our benefits of scale and visibility of revenues, as well as through efficiency gains,” said Vistry, which also expects the impact from increased Employer National Insurance contributions to be around £5 million in FY25, increasing to an annualised cost of about £7 million from FY26.