FedEx Stock Price (FDX) Bouncing off 52 Week Lows

FedEx Corporation's shares (NYSE: FDX), trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FDX, saw a significant decline on Friday, dropping sharply after the company reduced its fiscal 2025 forecast. Fedex's stock price was down more than 10% at one point on the day, hitting new 52 week lows following a statement from CEO Raj Subramaniam acknowledging the firm is “navigating a very challenging operating environment.”

This morning has seen the stock rally, with a gain of 4.63% through the first hour of trading bringing the price back to $241.

FedEx's influence as an economic barometer is notable. Both FedEx and UPS play significant roles in the global economy due to their heavy reliance on shipments from manufacturing companies, which contribute to a large volume of high-margin deliveries. Declines in their financial performance are often seen as indicators of underlying economic issues.

The backdrop to these corporate adjustments is further complicated by U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump. His administration's import tariffs have introduced a layer of uncertainty, compelling businesses to adopt more conservative spending strategies. Analysts and economists are concerned that these tariffs could trigger a recession and a potential trade war, which might further dampen demand for transportation and delivery services.

Moreover, Morgan Stanley has expressed concern that FedEx's recent quarterly report, alongside its reduced full-year forecast, could intensify apprehensions about structural pressures within the parcel delivery business. According to Morgan Stanley, these structural forces might pose a more significant challenge than prevailing macroeconomic factors.

Specifically, FedEx has adjusted its fiscal 2025 profit forecast, now expecting adjusted earnings per share to range between $18.00 and $18.60, down from the previous forecast of $19 to $20. Additionally, FedEx anticipates that its revenue for the current fiscal year could either remain flat or decrease slightly year-on-year, a shift from its earlier projection of flat growth.

Jefferies has this morning raised their rating on Fedex to ‘buy' from ‘hold, despite trimming their price target from $300 to $275. The firm see's markets “overly distracted by the macro”, with cost cutting measures underway expected to increase EPS in HY26 and FY27.