Marvell’s Stock Down 42% YTD as Support Levels Give Way

Marvell Technology's stock (NASDAQ: MRVL) has shed 42.17% year-to-date, with barely two months passed, as the bull thesis shows cracks, and perceived support levels break. The company's fourth-quarter report mildly beat on both the top and bottom lines, although guidance failed to excite markets that had been looking for more. Marvell's stock dropped 16% in the immediate aftermath, and has continued to drop as analysts cut price targets.

This is a trend not only affecting Marvell, but also those of others in the AI and semiconductor sector, such as Broadcom and Nvidia. Broadcom's own earnings came in strong, with the price of AVGO gaining almost 10% post print. That move in itself was short lived, as the broader risk off trend hit the stock, giving up most of the gains to sit down 20.5% YTD.

The scale of the disappointment for Marvell can perhaps better be distinguished by the scale of decline YTD amongst similar names, with the stock down more than double that of Broadcom as above, and close to 2x of Nvidia's 22.6% decline in 2025.

Taking a look at the 1 year chart above, the levels that looked to be offering some support around $90, and $75 have quickly given way, with $62 looking like the next point to watch to the downside. If the stock can find a bid, those levels which previously offered some support may be those to watch for resistance on the way up.

Despite Marvell's involvement in the AI boom by creating custom chips (ASICs) for companies like Amazon, investor enthusiasm has clearly been dampened. Marvell's performance in previous quarters showed stronger results, with Q3 earnings and revenues exceeding expectations by 5.9% and 4.3%, respectively, and in a market that was reacted to earnings quite differently.

Since releasing the latest set of numbers, Marvell's stock has seen it's price target trimmed almost across the street. Barclays, Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Keybanc, Piper Sandler, Raymond James, Needham, Roth MKM are those we have noted as revising to the downside. The low of $90, and high of $130 from those named reflects the shifting sentiment, albeit with the consensus $114 target continuing to reflect a significant perceived upside from current levels.

Whilst the sector is clearly coming under pressure in markets that are down year-to-date, there remains enthusiasm from the street. Whether Marvell can recapture some of the outperformance of old will be told in time, but for the time being at least, holders may have to accept a period of rebuilding as the next phase of potential growth becomes clearer .