Is Nvidia’s Stock a Buy at Current Levels?

NVIDIA stock price (NASDAQ: NVDA) has fallen more than 7.5% in the past two days of trading, as concerns surrounding the firms Chinese revenue come to the fore. The mini rally that coincided with the GTC AI event, and comments surrounding data center expansion now in the rear view, markets are again looking concerned when it comes to NVDA.

As the undisputed heavyweight champion of the artificial intelligence hardware boom, expectations are seemingly for perfection, with any perceived mis-step being more harshly treated by markets than might have been the case in recent years. Some lustre clearly seems to be coming off the AI trade, with Nvidia not immune.

Whilst there has been a decline 19% so far this year, there has been a period of consolidation between the $110 and $140 range. Over the past month, the stock has fallen 10%, yet the short-term price action might give pause, it must be viewed through the lens of NVIDIA’s extraordinary long-term performance. Investors who have held the stock over the past year are still sitting on substantial gains, with 12-month returns clocking in impressively at 23.3%. The 5 year gain of 1,660% will come as no surprise to long term followers of the stock.

• 52-Week Range -$75.61 – $153.13
• YTD Return – down 19.43%
• 12-Month Return +23.32%

Current technical indicators flash cautionary signals that traders are closely monitoring. The stock is currently trading below both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $125.87, and the 200-day SMA of $127.70. For technical analysts, a stock price residing below these key trend lines often suggests bearish momentum in the near term, potentially signaling further consolidation or a test of lower support levels before resuming its upward trajectory.

Yet, beneath the surface of this price consolidation lies a fundamental powerhouse operating at peak performance. NVIDIA’s latest quarterly results for Q4 Fiscal 2025, reported on February 26th, were impressive if not spectacular. The company delivered record quarterly revenue of $39.3 billion, decisively beating consensus estimates that hovered around $37.5 billion to $38.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) landed at $0.89, also comfortably surpassing expectations of $0.84-$0.85.

The engine driving this phenomenal growth remains the Data Center segment, which accounted for a staggering $35.6 billion of the quarterly revenue – a remarkable 93% year-over-year surge. This highlights the seemingly insatiable demand from cloud providers and enterprises for NVIDIA’s GPUs to train and run complex AI models. The company’s full fiscal year 2025 performance was equally strong, with total revenue rocketing 114% to $130.5 billion.

While the Automotive segment also posted strong growth, investors noted a decline in the Gaming division’s revenue for the quarter, an area to watch in future reports.

Nvidia Outlook

Looking ahead, the outlook remains exceptionally bright, underpinning the bullish thesis held by many long-term investors and analysts. For its upcoming Q1 Fiscal 2026 report, expected around May 28th, NVIDIA has issued strong guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $43.0 billion (+/- 2%). This aligns tightly with Wall Street’s consensus estimates, which range from $43 billion to $43.35 billion.

The consensus EPS estimate stands near $0.93, implying another massive year-over-year growth spurt potentially exceeding 50%. This confidence is largely fueled by the ongoing demand ramp for current products and the highly anticipated rollout of the next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture, promising further leaps in AI processing capabilities.

While the recent pullback and trading below key moving averages suggest potential for continued volatility or sideways action, the record-breaking financial performance, strong guidance, and entrenched leadership in the AI ecosystem presents a powerful story. The predominantly positive ‘Buy’ ratings from analysts also reflect confidence in the long-term trajectory.

Whether Nvidia is at a good point for entry would depend a lot of personal circumstances, and underlying view on both the industry, and threats to it’s international revenue. The street continue to stay on side for now, but any chinks in the previously impregnable armour may be harshly treated.