BlackBerry Stock Price (NYSE: BB) Holding Steady With Earnings on Deck

BlackBerry's stock price (NYSE: BB) gave up the gains of the year in March, with the 1 month decline of 14.12% leaving BB back where it started the year. Trading up a little over 1% in this morning's pre-market, holders will be looking for a stronger month for the stock leading into earnings this week.

The fourth-quarter earnings release, scheduled for before market open on April 2, 2025, could be a pivotal moment following significant strategic shifts.

Despite the recent pullback, BlackBerry's longer-term performance paints a more optimistic picture. Over the trailing twelve months, the stock has delivered impressive total returns exceeding 39.6%, climbing from a 52-week low of $2.01 to reach levels as high as $6.24 in February, before settling back in at $3.82. This yearly gain reflects underlying investor confidence in the company's turnaround efforts and its pivot towards high-growth sectors.

Technically, BlackBerry shares are giving off mixed signals, with the price sitting notably below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), yet comfortably above its 200-day SMA, situated around $3.09, suggesting that the longer-term uptrend established over the past year may still be intact.

Trading volume in yesterday's session was roughly 19.3 million shares, significantly lower than the recent 30-day average volume of approximately 25 million shares, indicating a potential degree of investor caution or a ‘wait-and-see' approach leading into the earnings announcement.

The impending Q4 report carries heightened significance as it will offer the first comprehensive financial view since BlackBerry finalized the divestiture of its Cylance cybersecurity portfolio to Arctic Wolf earlier this year. This strategic move, aimed at accelerating profitability and sharpening focus, netted BlackBerry crucial cash proceeds (paid in stages) and equity in Arctic Wolf. Consequently, the company now centers its operations on two core pillars: the Internet of Things (IoT) division, predominantly powered by its industry-leading QNX software platform, and its remaining Secure Communications (Cybersecurity) business.

Wall Street analysts are projecting a relatively subdued quarter financially, largely reflecting the absence of Cylance revenue. Consensus estimates for the fourth quarter (ending February 2025) hover around break-even, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.00 the consensus. Markets are looking for revenue of $132.81million on the period.

This compares to $173 million reported in the prior-year quarter, illustrating the top-line impact of the divestiture. BlackBerry's own guidance issued in December anticipated Q4 EPS between -$0.01 and +$0.01 on revenue of $126 million to $135 million, with segment expectations of $60M-$65M for IoT, $62M-$66M for Secure Communications (ex-Cylance), and roughly $4M from Licensing.

Markets will be paying close attention to the performance and outlook for the IoT segment, particularly growth metrics related to its QNX software. Updates on the QNX royalty backlog, which has shown strong growth previously, and new design wins will be key indicators. Equally important will be commentary on the stability and trajectory of the refocused Cybersecurity division.

BlackBerry did offer encouragement in its Q3 Fiscal 2025 report (ended Nov 30, 2024), beating analyst estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 and revenue of $162 million, while also achieving positive operating cash flow ahead of its own schedule.

🟩 The Bull Case for BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB)

• Successful Strategic Pivot: Continued strong performance and growth in the focused IoT (QNX) and Secure Communications divisions post-Cylance sale.
• IoT Momentum: Capitalizing on the large QNX royalty backlog and securing new design wins, especially in the automotive sector's shift towards software-defined vehicles.
• Profitability Path: Building on Q3's early achievement of positive operating cash flow and meeting or exceeding profitability targets (Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $10M-$20M for Q4).
• Valuation Upside: Current stock price offers significant potential upside towards average and high analyst price targets ($3.91 – $7.00 range mentioned across sources).
• Strong Financial Foundation: Improved balance sheet following Cylance proceeds and disciplined cost management.

🟥 The Bear Case for BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB)

• Execution Risk: Challenges in seamlessly operating and growing the separated IoT and Cybersecurity divisions and achieving projected synergies or efficiencies.
• Recent Weakness: The significant one-month price drop and trading below the 50-day SMA signal negative market sentiment and momentum.
• Earnings Miss: Failure to meet consensus or guided expectations for revenue or profitability in Q4 could trigger further selling pressure.
• Automotive Headwinds: Potential continued delays in automotive software program ramps impacting near-term IoT revenue growth.
• Competitive Pressures: Intense competition in both the automotive software/IoT and cybersecurity markets could hinder growth or margin expansion.

Overall analyst sentiment leans towards cautious optimism, with a general “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. Average 12-month price targets vary across different analysts but generally range from $3.91 to $5.25, suggesting potential upside from the current trading levels. High-end targets reach $7.00, while lower estimates stand around $4.00 (though some sources note targets as low as $2.70).

Notably, Canaccord Genuity recently raised its target price to $4.75, citing increased confidence following Q3 results, although maintained a ‘Hold' rating. The options market is pricing in significant potential movement, implying an expected post-earnings stock price swing of over 14% in either direction, underscoring the critical nature of tomorrow's release.