Tesla’s Stock: A Tale of Two Halves in 2024, With Analysts Split on 2025 Prospects

Tesla's stock (TSLA) had a real 2024 of two halves, with a decrease of 15% through the first half of the year giving way to gains of 120% through the second half. The stock picked up significant bullish momentum post the U.S. election, with 83% of gains coming from November 5th through Christmas.

The stock remains a focal point for investors and analysts moving into 2025, especially those with a keen interest in its future valuation prospects.

Dan Ives holds a bullish stance on Tesla with a price target of $515, extending up to $650 in a bullish scenario. His optimistic outlook is largely driven by the potential revenues he anticipates from Tesla's autonomous robotaxi services and the Optimus robot project. He speculates these ventures could result in earnings of $15 per share by 2030. Moreover, Ives projects that Tesla's autonomous vehicle business might capture 20% of the ride-share market by that time, which he values at $1 trillion.

Barclays on the other hand has a Hold rating and price target of $270 on Tesla. Despite the firm seeing a 6% increase year-on-year in Q4 deliveries (515,000 units) beating the street estimate (511,000), the analyst sees the fundamental story being limited.

Mizuho have revised upwards to $515, more than double the previous target of $230, with Morgan Stanley another to remain bullish on the stock, picking Tesla as its top stock for 2025, emphasising advances in autonomy and robotics. Whilst various analysts are revising upwards price targets, those catching up to current price action are fewer, with Baird's note that they are a buyer on pullbacks, came with a $280 target and Buy rating. Slightly out of sync with TSLA's current pre-market trading value at $456.60.

Tesla continues to intrigue analysts with its potential in autonomy and robotics. The disparities in valuation by Ives and Barclays, along with the low target of $120 underline the split range of views between the bulls and bears on the stock. 2025 could well prove to be another strong year for TSLA, but bulls will be hoping for a H1 that is considerably stronger than 2024 offered up.