United Airlines Stock (UAL) Soars Over 26% Ahead of Crucial Earnings

United Airlines Holdings’ stock (NASDAQ: UAL) experienced a dramatic surge in price Wednesday , closing at $70.83, marking a remarkable 26.14% intraday gain. This significant rally comes amidst a period of intense volatility for the airline carrier and just days before its highly anticipated Q1 2025 earnings report, setting the stage for a critical assessment of its trajectory.

Despite the daily upswing, UAL’s stock price has been navigating turbulent skies in recent months. The stock remains down 25.78% YTD, contrasting sharply with its 67% gain over the past 12 months. The 52-week range, stretching from a low of $37.02 in August 2024 to a peak of $116.00 as recently as January 2025, further underscores the stock’s volatile nature.

Technically, UAL presents a mixed picture. While the 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 41.03, suggesting momentum isn’t overextended in either direction despite the massive gain, the stock trades significantly below its key moving averages. The current price is beneath both the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ~$87 and the 200-day SMA ~$73.50, indicating that despite the day’s strength, the longer-term trend remains bearish.

The airline recently unveiled plans for a 20% increase in flights from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) by 2025, underpinned by a substantial $2.6 billion terminal modernization project. This move aims to cement SFO as a premier global hub and involves adding 1,200 operations roles next year.

Critically, United is launching exclusive non-stop routes from the U.S. to Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Adelaide, alongside enhanced services to Manila and Latin America, signaling a strong push into international markets.

Further bolstering its competitive edge, United secured FAA approval to equip its regional fleet with Starlink satellite internet, with installations beginning in May 2025. This upgrade promises a superior passenger experience and positions United as a leader in onboard connectivity, potentially attracting higher-yield business travelers.

Earnings Loom Large Amid Analyst Divides

All eyes now turn to April 16th, when United is scheduled to release its Q1 2025 financial results. The consensus Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) Earnings Per Share (EPS) stands at $9.44. For the first quarter specifically, analysts anticipate EPS in the range of $0.74. While this represents a significant 23.3% decline compared to the same quarter last year, it marks a staggering 633% improvement from the pandemic-affected levels, highlighting the airline’s recovery path. Projected revenue of $13.19 billion would signify a healthy 7.5% YoY increase.

Analyst sentiment, while broadly positive, reveals underlying caution. A strong consensus of 15 analysts rate UAL as a “Strong Buy,” projecting an average 12-month price target of $106.87, implying a substantial perceived upside from the current price.

Recent revisions do temper this bullishness somewhat. Barclays, for instance, recently lowered its price target from $140 to $94, citing softer-than-expected Q1 demand, although it maintained an “Overweight” rating.

The optimism surrounding United’s growth plans is tempered by persistent macroeconomic and operational challenges. Recent U.S. tariff announcements in early April have reignited fears of dampened corporate and leisure travel demand, particularly on lucrative transatlantic routes – a concern that previously led United and competitors to revise guidance downwards.

Domestically, labor costs remain a significant pressure point. A recent proposal from the Teamsters union was overwhelmingly rejected by members (99.5% against), signaling ongoing negotiations and potential cost escalations that could impact operating margins . While fuel costs saw a welcome 19% year-over-year decline in Q4 2024, the inherent volatility of energy prices remains an omnipresent risk factor for the airline industry.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming earnings report on April 15th will be a crucial litmus test. Markets will be keenly listening for management’s commentary on Q1 performance drivers, forward-looking guidance in light of potential tariff impacts, updates on labor negotiations, and strategies for managing fuel cost volatility.

The ability of United’s operational execution and strategic initiatives to overcome near-term economic uncertainties will likely dictate the stock’s trajectory in the coming months.