The USDCAD currency pair traded sideways during the American session despite releasing upbeat Canadian inflation data early in the session. The headline CPI print rose 0.1% in November, beating analysts' estimates of zero change.
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The median CPI print also exceeded analysts’ consensus estimates of 4.9% by coming in at 5.0% on a year-on-year basis. However, the trimmed CPI print met expectations set at 5.3%, while the standard CPI print rose to 6.7% versus consensus estimates of 6.1%.
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Overall, it was evident that inflation in Canada is heating up, making it difficult for the bank of Canada to stop hiking rates. The BoC will have no choice but to keep hiking rates if inflation remains high in December and January.
However, the positive Canadian inflation data was overshadowed by the upbeat US consumer confidence print released by the Conference Board, which came in at 108.3, beating market expectations set at 101.0, and the previous figure of 101.4.
The upbeat US consumer confidence indicates that consumers are confident in the country’s economic prospects heading into the new year. Many are hopeful that the worst is over for the country. The Fed’s reluctance to adopt a more dovish stance has not dented consumer confidence.
The currency pair was headed into negative territory at the time of publishing as the Canadian dollar fought for an edge against its US peer. A surge in crude oil prices also helped the loonie rise against the greenback.
As an oil-exporting country, a significant portion of Canada’s foreign exchange earnings come from crude oil exports. Hence, rising crude oil prices tend to boost the Canadian dollar.
The currency pair is set to end the year about 7.65% higher as the US dollar has outperformed all its peers this year, driven by the risk-off investor sentiment and the flight o safety following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
*This is not investment advice.
The USDCAD price chart.
The USDCAD currency pair was trading sideways despite Canada's release of upbeat inflation data.
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